Eating in a Calorie Deficit but Not Losing Weight? Here’s What’s Really Happening

Joelle Cavagnaro
February 23, 2026
5 min read

Maybe you’re tracking, you’re hitting your macros, and you’re getting your workouts in. But then 2 weeks go by and the scale hasn’t even moved.

Naturally, your brain goes to:
“This isn’t working”, “Maybe it’s my hormones”, “Something is wrong.”, “I need to eat less.”

Maybe.
But also… maybe not.

So let’s unpack what’s actually going on.

First: Measuring progress under the 3-4 week mark is likely premature.

Fat loss is slow. A realistic rate of fat loss for most women is approximately:
0.5–1% of bodyweight per week
Often slower for smaller or leaner individuals

That means if someone weighs 150 lbs, a reasonable weekly fat loss rate might be:
0.75–1.5 lbs per week

And that won’t show up linearly

Now add in water retention, glycogen shifts, hormonal fluctuations, stress, sodium intake, sleep changes, and suddenly two weeks of “no change” doesn’t look so alarming.

Next: Were maintenance calories actually established first?

This is one of the most overlooked pieces, especially because maintenance is a range, not one specific number. If someone jumps straight into a deficit without ever confirming true maintenance intake, we’re guessing. And guessing makes it harder to know if calories are truly low enough or if we just think they are.

Establishing maintenance means:
Tracking accurately
Holding intake steady for a minimum of 2-4 weeks
Watching bodyweight trends (not day-to-day scale noise)

Speaking of bodyweight “data trends”…

Scale weight fluctuates for reasons that have nothing to do with fat gain or loss.

Example: Glycogen + Water

For every gram of glycogen stored, the body holds ~3-4 grams of water. That means, if carbs increase, sodium intake shifts, stress rises, or sleep is poor, your scale weight may increase, EVEN if you are in a deficit.

Another example: Menstrual Cycle Phase

In the luteal phase, many women retain 1-5+ pounds of water, especially if dieting + stressed. If your first two weeks of dieting are during this phase, the scale may appear unchanged even while fat loss is occurring. This is why trend weight matters more than isolated weigh-ins.

Next, a question that nobody really likes: How accurate have you been with your tracking and logging?

It’s obviously not about perfection (nothing is). But patterns are important.

Common (very normal) tracking variables:
Estimating portions instead of weighing
Not logging oils, condiments, or bites
Weekend underreporting
Alcohol not fully accounted for

Research consistently shows that humans underreport intake, sometimes significantly, without realizing it. Before lowering calories, it’s worth asking: “Have I truly been consistent, or have there been small leaks in the system?”

Another possible factor: Has NEAT dropped without you noticing.

NEAT = Non-Exercise Activity Thermogenesis.

This includes: steps, fidgeting, standing, general daily movement. When calories drop, the body often subconsciously reduces movement. Meaning, you may sit more, move less, feel slightly more fatigued, etc. Without intentional step targets or movement awareness, this can shrink your deficit without changing calorie intake.

Next consideration: Had you spent some time out of a deficit before entering this one?

If someone:
Dieted aggressively before this cut
Didn’t spend time at maintenance
Is under-recovered

Progress may be slower. Metabolic adaptation is real, though often overstated online. More commonly, we’re seeing:
Reduced movement
Increased hunger
Lower training intensity
Hormonal stress from chronic dieting

In these cases, sometimes the answer isn’t “eat less.” Sometimes it’s to spend more time at maintenance, improve sleep, increase recovery, and reduce stress load.

“Okay Joelle, so how do I know if I ACTUALLY need to lower calories or not?”

Here’s a practical framework we tend to use with our LVLTN clients:

If:
Intake has been consistent
Tracking is accurate
Steps are stable
You’ve assessed menstrual cycle phase
3-4 full trend weeks show no downward movement

Then yes, a small reduction may be appropriate. Typically: a 100–200 calorie adjustment or slight increase in activity. Not a crash diet or a drastic cut. Just a data-driven tweak.

The very short (and oversimplified) reality…

Sometimes you’re not actually in a deficit. But that should be the last conclusion, not the first. Because without context, cutting calories further could increase stress, reduce recovery, increase muscle loss risk, and create an unsustainable cycle.

What we’d look at inside LVLTN

This is where the L5 Method comes in:

Training: Is stimulus adequate to preserve lean mass?
Nutrition: Is intake consistent and sufficient?
Movement: Has NEAT dropped?
Habits: Is sleep compromised?
Mindset: Are expectations realistic?

Fat loss isn’t just calorie math. It’s physiology + psychology + behavior + lifestyle.

Early in a dieting phase, it’s easy to panic. But a few weeks without scale change does not automatically mean failure. Pause, assess, zoom out, and try to make data-driven decisions, not emotional ones.

Want to learn how working with an LVLTN coach can help you reach your goals—and stay there? Start with a free LVLTN Blueprint Session.
It’s your personalized roadmap to clarity, consistency, and real results. You just need to fill out a quick application, then our team will review it and reach out with a link to schedule your session within 24 hours. Get started by clicking here!

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